Oak's Corner: Falling Batting Average for Santana

The Week That Was

• The curious case of Jonathan Lucroy has been one of the weirder non-injury stories of this first half. Lucroy, with an ADP of 56 in NFBC drafts this season, has completely tanked, hitting .261 with only four homers and somehow 19 RBI. His backup, Robinson Chirinos, has only 104 at-bats to Lucroy's 218 at-bats, but incredibly has more homers, runs and RBI than Lucroy. Lucroy has slashed his strikeout rate all the way down to 9.9 percent, the lowest of his career, but the increased contact has come with no pop and a 4 percent drop in his walk rate. Lucroy's hard hit rate has sat right around 35 percent (even in 2015 when he only hit seven homers) for the last five seasons, but has crashed significantly this year to 23 percent. Just as dramatically, Lucroy's ground ball rate has spiked to 53.6 percent, up an immense 16 percent from last season and is easily the highest of his career. It is nearly impossible to see his power returning anywhere near his 2016 level in the second half with his current batted ball trends. Some sort of injury could be an explanation for his struggles and complete change in his offensive profile, but without any news of that regard, I have no interest in acquiring Lucroy expecting any sort of second half bounce back.

• Carlos Santana had a breakout season in 2016, mashing a career high 34 home runs while hitting .259 and cutting his strikeout rate down to a career-low 14.4 percent. The power breakout was long awaited by many people and while the batting average has struggled in the past, I assumed the new power level was here to stay. Oops. The batting average has fallen back down to 2014 and 2015 levels, but the power is the concern, as Santana only has nine homers on the year. He has compensated pretty well for the lack of homers with 46 runs and 41 RBI, but with his batting average drain, the power has to be there for him to provide value. Santana's hard hit rate has dropped to 32.3 percent from 36.3 percent and his fly ball rate has regressed back to 37 percent, which is what his usual pre-2016 levels were, which answers where some of the power has gone. Most notably, his HR/FB rate sits at a career-low 9.8 percent, down from 16.9 percent last year. Santana is still walking at a solid 12.9 percent rate, but that is down from the past two seasons and while his babip is low at .238, he has never been a high-babip guy with a career .266 mark. I think Santana is a hold right now for me as I don't see anything to make me want to jump out at acquire him, but I'm also hoping the power bounces back a bit and am not selling for a discount price. He is one of those guys that you have to keep rolling out there and hope he finds a hot streak to pay off the draft spot.

• Andrelton Simmons has always been better known for his defense and aside from one 17-homer outburst in 2013, has always been a bit of a late flyer (as shown by his ADP of 386 this year) or an injury replacement in fantasy leagues. He is blowing that notion out of the water this year with eight homers and a .280 batting average and most notably, 13 stolen bases through 81 games. Simmons actually started his hot run in the second half of last year when he hit .291 and stole 8 bases over his last 69 games. He had never stole more than six bases while with the Braves, but this appears to be a matter of team philosophy as Mike Scioscia loves to run and the Angels lead all of MLB in stolen bases pretty easily with 74 stolen bases. Simmons has always been a solid contact guy and that remains the case with a strikeout rate under 10 percent, but he has also become more patient this season with a career-high 7.4 percent walk rate. He has also been hitting with more authority, pushing his hard hit rate to a career high 30.9 percent, up a significant 7 percent over last season. He still does not hit a lot of fly balls (28.2 percent) so a slew of homers are not coming, but with his increased hard hit rate, he has a solid chance to double up his first half and end up with 15 big flies. I am not looking to sell high on Simmons as I like what I see combined with how much the Angels run. If you can snag him from someone who has not boosted his price yet, I would act now.

• While backing up Adam Eaton and seeing spot starts in April, Michael Taylor struggled to the tune of a .219 batting average with no homers or steals in 13 games. Since taking over for Eaton as the Nats center fielder on April 29th, Taylor has done anything but struggle, checking in with a .296 average with 11 homers and nine steals in 52 games. He has been especially hot lately with a smoking .361 average with five homers and 14 RBI in his last 16 games. Taylor's one chance at full-time playing time was in 2015 and did not go well as he only hit .229, but he did hit 14 homers to go along with 16 steals. Taylor's biggest issue is that he strikes out too much and that has not gone away even with his success this year as he currently sports a 32.2 percent strikeout rate. On the plus side, when he does make contact, it has been with career highs in hard hit rate at 36.1 percent and fly ball rate at 38.2 percent. My least favorite thing about Taylor at the moment is how often he hits in front of the pitcher as hitting eighth in the NL limits his opportunities to run since the pitcher is likely to sacrifice him over right away. I like Taylor a lot, but would love to see him move up in the lineup, but that is a tough task with the loaded Nats lineup although the broken wrist suffered by Trea Turner on Thursday might see Taylor get some starts in the leadoff spot. The strikeouts are likely going to cause the average to come down a bit as the season progresses, but I like his batted ball profile and the speed/power combo that comes along with it enough to be a buyer on him at his current price, especially if Turner's injury cause Taylor to move to the top of the order.

• Gio Gonzalez came out of the gates fantastically well in April, stumbled with a few poor starts in May, but has bounced back well in June. On the season, he has made 16 starts, posting a 2.87 ERA, an exceptionally strong number in this season of big offense everywhere. In 32 June innings, Gonzalez has a 2.53 ERA while upping his strikeouts to a very strong 9.84 K/9 rate. My issue with Gio (yes, even when he was in Oakland!) has always been his problems with walks which almost always ends up moving his WHIP to a level that is going to hurt your teams, as shown by his career 1.32 mark. Gio pushed his walks rate under 3.00 per nine last season for the first time, but a look at this year sees a mark over 4.00 per nine for the first time since 2011. Gonzalez has been fortunate with an 85.7 percent strand rate and has also received some help with his .261 babip. His hard hit rate sits at 32.1 percent, about the same as 2016, but up from his career norms and his fly ball rate is up to a career-high 38.1 percent. I really do not like what I see from Gonzalez after a closer inspection (probably easy pickings for many with his 4.37 FIP) and he would be a prime pick for me to fade hard in the second half and I would offer him out to any teams desperate for pitching right away.

• Brandon Kintzler received very little love in the closer market in fantasy drafts this season, checking in with an ADP of 254 that placed him as the 30th relief pitcher off the board. The lack of strikeouts (5.80 K/9 rate in 2016) was a major factor in that ADP as well as a perceived tenuous grip on the role on a team that lost 103 gams in 2016. The strikeouts still have not been there (6.03 K/9), but Kintzler has posted a 2.62 ERA and most importantly in fantasy leagues, has converted 21 saves. Granted, his babip is lower than usual and his strand rate is high at 82.8 percent, but his success so far has given him a very long leash on a team that is surprisingly four games over .500. The swinging strike rate is very low at 6.6 percent so the strikeouts are not coming any time soon, but he also has been able to suppress hard contact under 30 percent and allow only 27.5 percent fly balls which limits his home run exposure. Kintzler will never be sexy when being compared to the huge strikeout closers, but I really just want saves and a firm hold on the job with my second or third closer. Kintzler is filling that role perfectly and has been incredibly valuable for his draft price, clocking in tied for second in saves through the first half of the season.
  

Luis Castillo: Castillo is a tricky bid this week as I like what I have seen so far from the rookie, but his two-step this week features road games at Arizona and Colorado. Coors is obviously Coors (especially in the summer), but the Diamondbacks have scored the most runs in baseball at home, averaging a ridiculous 6.2 runs per game at Chase Field. I am bidding on Castillo this week, but not starting him, an easy call, but it makes the bidding complicated, as the bids will likely be lower due to his schedule. Before getting called up by the Reds, Castillo was electric in Double-A, posting a 2.58 ERA over 80.1 innings. Supporting the ERA was a 9.07 K/9 strikeout rate while only allowing 1.46 walks per nine. He struggled a bit with command in the first start walking five Nationals, but his second start was better, allowing only two earned runs over 5.2 innings to the Brewers. It is true that he was saved by a fantastic Scott Schebler catch that brought back a three run homer, but he also struck out nine batters in that start. He has averaged 98 mph on his fastball over his first two starts and he really looks nasty on TV. He jumped Triple-A, which can be difficult, but he clearly has a lot of upside and the Reds rotation is such a mess that he has a chance to stick if he pitches well at all. I want him on my teams for his potential, but if I obtain him, I will be watching him this week, as he will be comfortably on my bench.

Alex Meyer: Meyer, the former first round pick of the Nationals in 2011, has had a great June for the Angels, putting up a 2.25 ERA in 32 innings. He has managed 34 strikeouts across those innings while teams are hitting a meager .181 against him. He finds himself with a two-start week to end the first half at Minnesota and at Texas. On a first glance, he looks like a high pedigree guy who has found his form, but my concern stems from his walks. On the season, his walks sit at a very high 6.02 walks per nine, a number that explains why his WHIP is 1.41 even with an ERA under 4.00. Looking at his run of success in June, the walks have still been an issue with a BB/9 rate of 5.34 in the month, including two games where he walked five batters. His swinging strike rate is at 10.4 percent so the strikeouts look pretty real, but I am staying away this week strictly because of those darn walks. With those walks, his WHIP is never going to be good so you are banking on ERA and strikeouts, but I don't want to give away a category before a guy even takes the hill and if his free passes remain anywhere near that high, that is exactly what you are doing. Meyer will probably be a popular add this week in leagues with the two starts, but I will be passing or at least putting him down my conditional list in deeper leagues.

Andrew Moore: Moore was called up for one start by the Mariners last week and then promptly sent back down to Triple-A because the Mariners had no need for a fifth starter this week. He is expected to be recalled next week for a start Monday or Tuesday which would line him up for a nice two start week, facing the Royals and A's, both at home. Moore has been very solid so far this year in Triple-A, pitching 54 innings with a 3.06 ERA. His command has been impeccable with a 1.36 BB/9 walk rate and he has also been solid with strikeouts with 8.15 K/9. In his one start in the majors, he was effective against the Tigers, allowing three runs over seven innings. He only struck out four in that game, but I was especially impressed with the zero walks. Moore only throws in the 90-92 mph range, but uses his control to move the ball around the zone to get guys out. While I don't think he is going to be a large strikeout guy in the majors, the second round pick could stick in the Mariners rotation with the news that Drew Smyly is out for the rest of the season. Seattle's offense can score some runs (top five in the AL in runs) and if Moore can hang in games and continue to not walk anyone, he could roll up some wins. I am bidding him in both 12 and 15 teamers this week with the solid matchups on paper and consider him a possible keeper going forward in 15-teamers.

With Mark Melancon heading to the DL yet again due to right elbow tendinitis, the Giants will have to find another pitcher to close games. Initial reports on Melancon indicate that he will be out through the All Star Break, but hopes to return soon after, so his replacement could only close for a week or two, but this issue has been nagging Melancon all year so a setback or a delay in his return would not be surprising. Reports from Giants beat writers noted that the likely replacement would be Sam Dyson (yes, THAT Sam Dyson). Dyson was designated for assignment by the Rangers in early June after a disastrous start to the season as their closer and acquired a few days later in a trade by the Giants.

As well all know, Dyson was terrible in Texas this season, but we can't forget that this is a dude who had an ERA under 3.00 for the last three season and locked down 38 saves in 2016. Dyson is a ground ball specialist who has had a ground ball rate over 60 percent in every season in the majors. After allowing five homers in over 70 innings last season, Dyson has already allowed six homers this year in 24 innings, an incredible number for a guy who makes his living inducing grounders. His hard hit rate is still under 30 percent this season, but he has been the victim of an extremely bloated 30 percent HR/FB rate so far. Dyson allowed two runs in his first outing with the Giants, but since then, he has allowed only two earned runs total in his last 7.1 innings, striking out 10 batters in that stretch. I will be bidding on Dyson this weekend in any league where I need saves with the thought that Melancon could easily have a setback or just need more time, but also based on Dyson's track record with the hope that he could return to form. It is not without risk considering how truly awful he was to start the year, but a ground baller in AT&T with a closer job is something I have to take a shot on.

Series of the Weekend

Yankees at Houston: Two of the three best records in the American League match up again this weekend, this time in Minute Maid Park. After a six game win streak in early June put the Yankees 15 games over .500, a recent swoon has seen them lose 12 of their last 16 games and give up first place in the AL East to their rival Red Sox. These two squads still sport the two best run differentials in the American League (both over 100) and they are by far the top two scoring offenses in the AL as they are the only teams over 400 runs on the year. This should be a fun series with a lot of offensive fireworks.

The A's played the Astros this week so I watched a lot of the series and what struck me was how relentless the Astros offense is and there are just very few times in the lineup you can ever take a breath. They just keep coming and even if you survive the first three or four innings without allowing any runs, they are very likely to find a way to wear you down by the end of the game. George Springer, a guy I incorrectly thought was being over-drafted in March, has been a monster with 24 homers already on the season to go with his .944 OPS. They have six regulars that are hitting over .280 and feature seven hitters that have already reached double-digit homers. This is the best team in the American League and that doesn't figure to change for the next few years with the ages of their top stars.

The game on Saturday night is of particular interest to me as one of my favorite young pitchers, Jordan Montgomery, will take the hill to face this powerful Houston lineup. I have really liked what I have seen from Montgomery of late as he posted a 2.59 ERA in 31.1 June innings. My main concern with him when he was called up was the walks and he has managed to reduce those month by month so far, including a very solid 2.30 BB/9 rate in June. This game in Houston will be a very tough test for him, especially as a lefty as Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa all hit from the right side of the plate. If Montgomery can tame this lineup at all, it will really show just how good he is and can be. This is easily the best series of the weekend and from a fantasy angle, the stats should be flying all over the yard.